Scenarios
What could happen. Disruption ladder · Second Contamination · CKICAS eight-stock ring · government levers · sub-regional gaps.
Disruption ladder
Pick a scenario to see the days-of-cover delta and stock-ring impact.
Second Contamination
◐When fuel disruption stops dairy collection, uncollected milk becomes a freshwater hazard. Biological Oxygen Demand (BOD) in receiving streams jumps as milk solids decompose. The 'second contamination' is the freshwater hit that follows the fuel hit — invisible to FuelClock-style data layers because it lives in NIWA / regional council water-quality records, not in MBIE petroleum stocks.
Initial in-stream BOD Biochemical Oxygen Demand
How much oxygen microbes consume breaking down organic matter in water. High BOD starves a stream of oxygen and kills aquatic life. Raw milk is ~250× the strength of domestic sewage (~100,000 mg/L), so spilled uncollected milk is a severe freshwater hazard. (mg/L)
- Waikato 7 mg/L ISDC 2026 (Sovereign-supplied verbatim figures)
Sovereign-supplied verbatim from ISDC 2026 paper; v1.1 dynamic against live Fonterra collection state requires Tier 3 partnership raw milk = 14,286× this - Southland 16 mg/L ISDC 2026 (Sovereign-supplied verbatim figures)
Sovereign-supplied verbatim from ISDC 2026 paper; v1.1 dynamic against live Fonterra collection state requires Tier 3 partnership raw milk = 6,250× this - Canterbury 43 mg/L ISDC 2026 (Sovereign-supplied verbatim figures)
Sovereign-supplied verbatim from ISDC 2026 paper; v1.1 dynamic against live Fonterra collection state requires Tier 3 partnership raw milk = 2,326× this
What the milk adds
How much oxygen microbes consume breaking down organic matter in water. High BOD starves a stream of oxygen and kills aquatic life. Raw milk is ~250× the strength of domestic sewage (~100,000 mg/L), so spilled uncollected milk is a severe freshwater hazard. — about 250× domestic sewage, and thousands× the stream baselines above
ILLUSTRATIVE One road-milk tanker (25,000 L) carries 2,500 kg of BOD load. Fully mixed into a 1 ML stream it lifts a Waikato-baseline 7 mg/L reach to ≈2,445.9 mg/L — oxygen-crash territory. Real spill volumes scale with days of disruption × regional collection stopped (v1.1 dynamic inputs below).
Higher initial BOD = closer to a stream that cannot self-recover within the disruption window. Canterbury sits at the upper end of the three regions surveyed; Waikato at the lower. The figures are baseline BOD before any milk-spill scenario; the scenario itself adds load on top of these baselines.
v1.1 dynamic inputs required
- Live Fonterra regional collection volume (national-monthly is public; sub-regional real-time requires partnership)
- Days of disruption (from Tab 1 Supply / Tab 2 Pipeline)
- Storage capacity at affected dairy plants
- Local stream flow rates (NIWA Hydro Web)
Policy implication: GovernmentResponseOptions on Tab 4 lists levers that buy fuel-stock days. Several of those levers (e.g. odd/even, essential travel) buy days WITHOUT preventing dairy plant disruption — they shift the freshwater hit's timing but do not avoid it. v1.1 will compute that trade-off explicitly.
Eight-stock ring
Sovereign's signature module. The constitutional scaffold of Aotearoa as eight stocks: trust, cohesion, food, energy, transport, governance, biophysical, built-capital. Trust + cohesion are rendered with a dashed border because they are qualitative — not currently measured.
measured qualitative — not currently measured news-driven (fuel risk composite) flow
Government response options
Each lever buys days. Each lever costs something else on the 8-stock ring.
Tier 3 — sub-regional (v1.1 partnership pending)
Sub-regional granularity for Taranaki / Waikato / Canterbury / Southland requires partnership data sources beyond AFI's public-source v0.9. These cards show the gap honestly rather than collapsing the region into national.
Taranaki
v1.1 status: partnership pending — Sovereign owns the approach (Tim, Javed Suliman / Fonterra)
Waikato
v1.1 status: partnership pending — dairy-density-weighted indicator candidate
Canterbury
v1.1 status: partnership pending — irrigation-fuel coupling candidate
Southland
v1.1 status: partnership pending — agribusiness-fuel coupling candidate